¡Ni una muerta más! No more killing of women! Is a future without femicides possible?:
A proposal for scenario analysis and planning for strategic foresight
Palavras-chave:
Femicide, scenario planning, machismo, gender-based violenceResumo
This research investigates whether a future without femicides is possible in Mexico and develops strategic foresight scenarios to guide policy and activism toward achieving a sustained reduction in gender-based murders over a 25-year horizon (2026–2051). A two-phase experimental method was employed. Phase one involved qualitative data collection through five focus groups with university students and structured interviews with five experts from health, education, civil society, the judiciary, and academia. Phase two applied Peter Schwartz's eight-step scenario planning methodology to construct future narratives based on identified driving forces and critical uncertainties. Thematic analysis revealed two consensus variables: sexist culture (machismo) as the root cause of femicides, and police institutional failure as the most urgent barrier to justice. Two critical uncertainties were identified—transformation of upbringing and transformation of justice institutions—yielding four scenarios. The ideal scenario requires simultaneous transformation of both family education and justice institutions, projecting a reduction in femicides where women walk alone without fear and men express emotions freely.
